Combining Housing Market Trends and Resident Attitudes in Planning Urban Revitalization

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Abstract
The revitalization and preservation of urban neighborhoods has become a matter of increasing public and private concern. This article assists these efforts by further explorations in the theory of neighborhood transition and in the presentation and evaluation of the use of trends in real estate values as an index of neighborhood socioeconomic vitality. The arbitrage model of neighborhood succession is shown to be directly connected to neighborhood property value appreciation trends. This model is useful because it moves the discussion of neighborhood transition beyond the “neighborhood life cycle”—where neighborhoods always go from stable to deteriorated—to a more general perspective where, depending on the circumstances, neighborhoods can be either upgraded or downgraded. It is concluded that monitoring property value trends may be helpful in the design of neighborhood revitalization strategies, both for the direct information conveyed and for the assistance in gathering and interpreting other sources of information.