Aboriginal population prospects

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Abstract
Data from the 1991 Census largely confirm earlier projections of the size and structure of the Aboriginal population, although the data for Torres Strait Islanders are markedly inconsistent with previous counts. The 1986 and 1991 Censuses mark the first intercensal period for decades for which Aboriginal population counts have been consistent. This provides an opportunity, taken in this paper, to examine closely the discrepancies between projections and the 1991 Census and to comment on ways in which determinants of Aboriginal population change are diverging from the parameters used for previous projections. We pay particular attention to mortality prospects, because of the occurrence in the 1991 Census of a higher than expected sex ratio and differences between projections and counts for certain age groups. We note the evidence for under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in particular age groups in the 1991 Census as in previous censuses, and estimate the size of adjustments necessary to correct for some, but not all, of these deficiencies. The analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility increased in the second half of the 1980s.

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