Predicting mortality in older patients. The VELCA Study

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Abstract
Background and aims: Mortality at older age, during and after hospitalization, can be determined by several factors, beyond the direct cause for hospital admission, which are not yet fully understood. The aim of this study was to assess predictors of inpatient mortality and one-year mortality in older Italians, hospitalized for dementia, heart failure, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, stroke, hip fracture and myocardial infarction at the Verona Teaching Hospital, Northern Italy. Methods: At admission, 429 patients aged 65 years and older reported information on: sociodemographic characteristics, Barthel index at admission and two weeks before, and severity of investigated diagnosis; at discharge: diagnosis, comorbid conditions, complications from hospital records, drug therapy, and Barthel index. One year after discharge, an ad hoc questionnaire for those subjects found to have died on phone contact was administered to a proxy to collect data on new hospital admissions, onset of new conditions, need for formal care, a short version of the Barthel index one month before death, and the place of death. Results: Sex and specific diseases at admission were not significant predictors of inpatients, nor was one-year mortality in this cohort, whereas the presence of any comorbid conditions doubled the risk of mortality at one year compared with patients without comorbidity. Those patients who had moderate to severe/total dependency in ADL at admission were three times more likely to have died at discharge than those who were independent. The same risk for mortality at one-year follow-up was found in those patients who were severely or totally dependent at preadmission, at admission, or at discharge. Conclusions: Functional status and comorbidity are key risk factors for mortality in the elderly. Therefore, multidimensional assessment, including functional status prior to hospitalization should always be assessed, and should be considered a relevant predictor of short- and long-term outcomes.