Evaluating Human Service and Correctional Programs By Modeling the Timing of Recidivism

1 November 1979

journal article
research article
Published by SAGE Publications in Sociological Methods & Research

Vol. 8 (2) , 179-208
https://doi.org/10.1177/004912417900800204

Abstract

This paper develops and illustrates a new statistical model of recidivism which enables program evaluators to (1) examine short-run program impact on the postponement of recidivism, through estimates of the average time at which recidivism occurs; (2) measure long-run program impact on the prevention of recidivism, through estimates of the ultimate probability ofrecidivism and (3) help determine when individuals have been successful long enough to be considered "safe," through estimates of their conditional probability of future recidivism.

Keywords

This publication has 5 references indexed in Scilit:

Recidivism and Likelihood Functions
Evaluation Quarterly, 1979
Comments On "the Mathematics of Behavioral Change"
Evaluation Quarterly, 1979
I m proved Statistical Techniques for the Measurement of Recidivism
Journal of Research in Crime and Delinquency, 1978
The Mathematics of Behavioral Change
Evaluation Quarterly, 1977
Failure-Rate Analysis Applied to Recidivism Data
Operations Research, 1974