Dating the Time of Origin of Major Clades: Molecular Clocks and the Fossil Record

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Abstract
▪ Abstract Molecular and paleontological data provide independent means of estimating when groups of organisms evolved in the geological past, but neither approach can be considered straightforward. The single most fundamental obstacle to developing an accurate estimate of times of origination from gene sequence data is variation in rates of molecular evolution, both through time and among lineages. Although various techniques have been proposed to circumvent this problem, none unambiguously allow the components of time and rate to be separated. Furthermore, problems of establishing accurate calibration points, correctly rooted phylogenies, and accurate estimates of branch length remain formidable. Conversely, paleontological dates fix only the latest possible time of divergence, and so probabilistic methods are required to set a lower boundary on origination dates. Realistic confidence intervals that take preservational biases into account are only just becoming available. Although molecular and paleonto...