Data revisions and time series models of GDP and its components

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Abstract
This paper examines how time series models of gross domestic product and its components in the UK change as a result of both new observations becoming available and the provisional data series being revised. Quarterly predictions from the time series models are compared with the series of first estimates of each quarterly change, the series available one year after the forecasts are made and the most recent data available. The time series models are found to be satisfactory in a number of cases and are better predictors of the final values of total final expenditure than the first estimates series. Surprisingly, the first estimates series are closer to the most recent data available than the estimates obtained one year after the data period ended.