Load forecasting under spot pricing

Abstract
Time varying tariffs such as spot pricing give rise to changes in load magnitude as well as effect a redistribution of load with respect to time. The paper proposes mathematical models, centred on the concepts, cross-time price elasticity matrix, decomposition of the price and time correlations of load, forecasting of consumer price anticipation and forecasting natural load variation. These elements are interacted against the system power production cost database for short run demand forecasting. Sophisticated approaches such as this will replace established forecasting methods wherever short run time variable tariffs are adopted.

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