In this paper, the authors discuss observed climatic variability from 1982 to early 1995 and emphasize the contrasts between the period of strong interannual variability during the 1980s and the period of more persistent features beginning in 1990. Three versions of the NCEP coupled forecast model, which were developed to predict interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Pacific, are described and their performance compared for those two periods. Climatic variability during 1982–1992 in the tropical Pacific was dominated by strong low-frequency interannual variations characterized by three warm and two cold El Niño episodes. However, beginning in 1990, the climate state has been characterized by a pattern of persistent positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, especially in the central Pacific near the date line, and weaker than normal trade winds. Superimposed on this were several occurrences of short-lived, generally small-amplitude warmings in the eastern equatori... Abstract In this paper, the authors discuss observed climatic variability from 1982 to early 1995 and emphasize the contrasts between the period of strong interannual variability during the 1980s and the period of more persistent features beginning in 1990. Three versions of the NCEP coupled forecast model, which were developed to predict interannual sea surface temperature variability in the equatorial Pacific, are described and their performance compared for those two periods. Climatic variability during 1982–1992 in the tropical Pacific was dominated by strong low-frequency interannual variations characterized by three warm and two cold El Niño episodes. However, beginning in 1990, the climate state has been characterized by a pattern of persistent positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific, especially in the central Pacific near the date line, and weaker than normal trade winds. Superimposed on this were several occurrences of short-lived, generally small-amplitude warmings in the eastern equatori...