Consequences of Climate Policy for International Tourist Arrivals in Developing Countries

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Abstract
One of the major implications of climate change for tourism destinations is the potential impact that mitigation policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the rapidly growing aviation sector could have on travel costs and tourist mobility. Such impact is particularly salient for long-haul destinations. Recently tourism organisations such as the unwto have also expressed concern that aviation sector-focused mitigation policies in wealthy nations that are the major international tourism outbound markets will negatively affect tourism development and wealth transfers to tourism-dependent developing nations. This article reviews emerging climate policies in major tourism outbound markets that have direct implications for the aviation sector and examines the potential consequences for travel costs and tourism demand in 10 tourism-dependent less developed island states with diverse geographic and tourism market characteristics. The analysis confirms that aviation mitigation policies would affect tourism demand to these nations. ‘Carbon smart’ tourism market restructuring approaches to reduce the emissions intensity of tourism, and market risk to climate policy changes anticipated over the next 10–20 years, are subsequently discussed.

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