Sustainability of Hatchery-Dependent Salmonine Fisheries in Lake Ontario: The Conflict between Predator Demand and Prey Supply

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Abstract
The offshore fish community of Lake Ontario is presently dominated by intensively managed, nonnative species: Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax at the planktivore level and stocked salmonines at the piscivore level. Salmonine stocking rates per unit area of Lake Ontario are the highest in the Great Lakes, and fishery managers are concerned about the sustainability of the fishery under present stocking policies, particularly with the recent collapse of the Lake Michigan fishery for chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha. In this paper, we describe and present the results of a simulation model that integrates predator demand estimates derived from bioenergetics, prey and predator population dynamics, and a predation model based on the multiple-species functional response, Model reconstructions of historical alewife biomass trends and salmonine diets corresponded reasonably well with existing data for the period 1978–1992. The simulations suggest that current predator de...

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