Steaming in the Dark?

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Abstract
The empirical literature on arms races has often failed to find strong evidence of the existence of arms races among “obvious” dyads. In this article it is argued that if we assume that decision makers use simple rules and concentrate on the weapons stock of their rivals, we can produce highly accurate models. These premises are tested by examining the size of the British navy from 1860 to 1913. The results offer support for this line of argument.

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