The Application of Time Series Analysis to Fisheries Population Assessment and Modeling

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Abstract
A primary concern of fishery science has been dynamic systems modeling, specifically the construction of mathematical models that determine values of fishing yield (harvest) through time. Consider the most common fishery dynamic system, that of fishing effort and catch diagrammed in Figure 1. In its most elemental form, this system is composed of an input, fishing effort, an output, catch, and a mathematical model which translates values of fishing effort to catch. The mathematical model of Figure 1 can be constructed from two very different approaches. The first, and most common in fishery science, is to derive the model from fundamental “laws of nature” or “principles of population dynamics”. An example of this approach is the well-known equilibrium yield (or surplus production) model which relates fishing effort to catch (Schaefer, 1957; Ricker, 1975): (1)https://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML">Y = FBhttps://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781003421252/c120506a-497e-4c3c-ad41-8220b72f44c8/content/eq748.tif" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/> Figure 1 Black box diagram of fishery effort-catch input-output system. https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9781003421252/c120506a-497e-4c3c-ad41-8220b72f44c8/content/fig7_1.tif" xmlns:xlink="https://www.w3.org/1999/xlink"/>

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