Seasonal Patterns of Fertility Measures: Theory and Data

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Abstract
Seasonal patterns of five measures of reproduction in a population of married women are considered: marital fertility rate, pregnancy prevalence, mean open birth interval, mean closed birth interval-birth, and mean closed birth interval-woman. In a model the fertility rate is assumed to follow a known trigonometric curve; then the lag and relative variability of the other measures are considered in comparison with the fertility rate curve. The predictions from this theoretical work, when compared with observed patterns and trigonometric regression results for each measure in data from Bangladesh, are shown to be quite accurate. Implications for fertility analyses are discussed.

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