Haematocrit and risk of development of Type 2 diabetes mellitus in middle‐aged Japanese men

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Abstract
Aims To investigate the association between haematocrit and risk of development of diabetes.Methods The study enrolled 2953 normoglycaemic [fasting plasma glucose (FPG) < 6.1 mmol/l and taking no hypoglycaemic medication] Japanese men aged 35–59 years and free of medication for hypertension and history of cardiovascular disease. FPG was measured at periodic annual health examinations from May 1994 through May 2001. Men in whom Type 2 diabetes mellitus (FPG ≥ 7.0 mmol/l or receiving hypoglycaemic medication) was found during repeated surveys were classified as having Type 2 diabetes.Results The estimated incidence rates for Type 2 diabetes during 7 years of follow‐up were 3.1%[95% confidence interval (CI) 1.6, 4.6], 4.6% (2.8, 6.4), 5.0% (3.2, 6.9), 6.4% (4.4, 8.5), and 11.5% (8.9, 14.2) for respective haematocrit levels of < 42.6, 42.6–44.0, 44.1–45.3, 45.4–46.8, and ≥ 46.9% (the log‐rank test:P < 0.001). After controlling for potential predictors of diabetes, the respective relative risks for Type 2 diabetes were 1.0 (reference), 1.52 (95% CI 0.81, 2.86), 1.24 (0.66, 2.31), 1.57 (0.86, 2.88), and 2.30 (1.30, 4.08) (Pfor trend = 0.002). From stratified analyses by presence or absence of a risk factor, a linear association of haematocrit level with risk of development of Type 2 diabetes was also observed.Conclusion These results indicate that haematocrit contributes to the risk of developing Type 2 diabetes.