Bayesian estimation of movement and survival probabilities from capture-recapture data

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Abstract
The Arnason–Schwarz model is usually used for estimating survival and movement probabilities of animal populations from capture-recapture data. The missing data structure of this capture-recapture model is exhibited and summarised via a directed graph representation. Taking advantage of this structure we implement a Gibbs sampling algorithm from which Bayesian estimates and credible intervals for survival and movement probabilities are derived. Convergence of the algorithm is proved using a duality principle. We illustrate our approach through a real example.

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