Modernization Patterns and Fertility Change: The Arab Populations of Israel and the Israel-Administered Territories

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Abstract
The relation between socio-economic development and fertility is analyzed for the Arab populations of Israel and the territories administered by Israel (i.e., the West Bank and the Gaza Strip). Retrospective survey statistics are used to reconstruct the fertility patterns of currently married Arab women, along with a variety of census information. Fertility responses to socio-economic changes are traced out in detail for the period of the British Mandate, the first 20 yr of statehood 1948-1967, and the contemporary post-1967 period. Both Christian and Moslem Arab populations experienced similar high levels of fertility up to the late 1920s. Subsequently, there has been a negative relation between socio-economic development and fertility. In terms of levels of development and fertility decline the sub-populations are ranked in the following order: Israeli urban Christians; Israeli urban Moslems; Israeli rural Christians, Israeli rural Moslems; Moslems in the Administered Territories. The timing and rate of fertility reduction may be related to the character of specific demographic, economic and political changes that generate conflicts at the family level.