A note on the recurrence of yellow fever epidemics in urban populations
- 1 March 1974
- journal article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Applied Probability
- Vol. 11 (1) , 170-173
- https://doi.org/10.2307/3212593
Abstract
An approximate expression is found for the probability density of the recurrence time between major outbreaks of a host-vector disease such as yellow fever, in which the infectious period of a host is short and the lifetime of a vector is short compared with that of a host. The typical interval between epidemics based on the modal value of this distribution is obtained. These results are the analogues of those obtained by Bartlett (1956), (1966) for the periodicity of measles epidemics in small communities.Keywords
This publication has 2 references indexed in Scilit:
- A bivariate birth-death process which approximates to the spread of a disease involving a vectorJournal of Applied Probability, 1972
- DETERMINISTIC AND STOCHASTIC MODELS FOR RECURRENT EPIDEMICSPublished by University of California Press ,1956