Simulation modelling of Aedes aegypti prevalence, an environmental hazard surveillance tool for the control of dengue epidemics

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Abstract
We performed a five-year simulation of Aedes aegypti population dynamics in Townsville, Queensland to better understand local Ae. aegypti ecology and thus improve the potential effectiveness of interventions aimed at dengue control. Using the Container Inhabiting Mosquito Simulation Model (CIMSiM), public health interventions can use a wealth of environmental knowledge about Ae. aegypti, a disease vector hazard, towards its surveillance. We conducted larval surveys to initialise the simulation of Ae. aegypti prevalence and parameterise Townsville's artificial container habitats. Our simulations indicate (1) a seasonal, but stable Ae. aegypti prevalence, (2) the importance of bromeliads, striking vases, pot plant bases and car tire containers as breeding sources and (3) the potential effectiveness of breeding container source reduction and pesticide space spraying. Although it is unlikely that simulation modelling will ever be used to forecast impending dengue epidemics, the limitations of modelling do not preclude their role in environmental health programs aimed at improving the effectiveness of available interventions.