Similarities in the Distribution of Stock Market Price Changes between the Eighteenth and Twentieth Centuries
- 1 January 1998
- journal article
- research article
- Published by University of Chicago Press in The Journal of Business
- Vol. 71 (1) , 55-79
- https://doi.org/10.1086/209736
Abstract
Are all financial time series alike? This article raises that question by establishing that eighteenth‐ and twentieth‐century equity‐market time series behave similarly. The distribution of price changes now and then both exhibit the same patterns or regularities. In particular, the distribution of price changes is leptokurtic, and fluctuations in variance are persistent. This article provides further evidence that financial market regularities are stable and not contingent on specific times and places. The historical evidence shows that eighteenth‐century stock markets and traders are not so different from those of today.Keywords
This publication has 18 references indexed in Scilit:
- On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on StocksThe Journal of Finance, 1993
- Nonlinear Dynamic StructuresEconometrica, 1993
- Common Persistence in Conditional VariancesEconometrica, 1993
- Patterns in Three Centuries of Stock Market PricesThe Journal of Business, 1993
- Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New ApproachEconometrica, 1991
- Semi-Nonparametric Maximum Likelihood EstimationEconometrica, 1987
- Stock return variancesJournal of Financial Economics, 1986
- Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticityJournal of Econometrics, 1986
- Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom InflationEconometrica, 1982
- The Variation of Certain Speculative PricesThe Journal of Business, 1963