Age and seasonal variation in the transition rates and detectability of Plasmodium falciparum malaria

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Abstract
The effect of acquired immunity on the duration of Plasmodium falciparum infections is unclear, although this is an important term in models of malaria transmission. It is problematical to determine the duration of infections because of the difficulty of distinguishing persisting infections from new ones, and because parasite densities are often transiently below the limit of detection. We recently developed a dynamic model for infection incidence, clearance and detection of multiple genotype P. falciparum infections and fitted it to a panel dataset from a longitudinal study in Northern Ghana. We now extend this model to allow for seasonal and age variation in infection rates and also age dependence in clearance and in detectability of infections. These models indicate that there is seasonal variation in the infection rate, and age dependence in detectability. The best fitting models had no age dependence in infection or clearance rates, suggesting that acquired immunity mainly affects detectability.