Market Anticipations of Government Policies and the Price of Gold

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Abstract
This paper is an analysis of the effects of anticipations of government sales policies on the real price of gold. Although the risk of a future government gold auction depresses the price, it also causes the price to rise in percentage terms faster than the real rate of interest and at an in- creasing rate. Even risk-neutral investors require this rate of return as inducement to hold gold in the face of the asymmetric risk of a price collapse. Announcements making a government auction more probable cause a sudden drop in the price. Government attempts to peg the price or to defend a price ceiling with sales from its stockpile must result eventu- ally in a sudden attack by speculators.

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