Creep rate changes at Parkfield, California 1966–1999: Seasonal, precipitation induced, and tectonic

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
Measured fault creep at Parkfield contains information about the slip rate on the San Andreas fault but also is affected by rainfall and other seasonal effects. Seven creep meters record a repeatable seasonal variation that can be removed from the data. Four of the creep meters exhibit surges in creep rate during the rainy season. For these instruments a function of rainfall is developed that crosses a threshold within a few days of the onset of accelerated creep. In addition to the seasonal variations and surges, most Parkfield creep meters record higher creep rates more frequently during the wet season than during the dry season. Characterizing this behavior makes it possible to distinguish between rainfall‐influenced creep and creep rate changes of tectonic origin. Accelerated creep beginning in January 1983 was probably induced by rainfall, rather than by tectonic sources related to the Coalinga earthquake in May 1983. Four creep meters in the central part of the Parkfield fault segment are recording higher creep rates since 1993. A strong case can be made that the increased creep rate at CRR1 is tectonic, but for the other three creep meters an influence of rainfall is difficult to rule out. Strain rate changes recorded on three‐component borehole strain meters suggest that the rate of subsurface creep to the northwest of these instruments is even greater. The 1993 creep rate increase is more abrupt and farther south than the expected signal from accelerating slip near the hypocenter of the 1966 Parkfield earthquake but is in the same location as rapid fault slip reported prior to that event.