A Mechanism for the High Rate of Sea Ice Thinning in the Arctic Ocean

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Abstract
Submarine measurements of sea ice draft show that the ice has thinned in some parts of the Arctic Ocean at a remarkably high rate over the past few decades. The spatial pattern indicates that the thinning was a strong function of ice thickness, with the greatest thinning occurring where the ice was initially thickest. A similar relationship between sea ice thinning and the initial thickness is reproduced individually by three global climate models in response to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the models' atmosphere. All three models have weak trends in their surface winds and one model lacks ice dynamics altogether, implying that trends in the atmosphere or ice circulation are not necessary to produce a relatively high rate of thinning over the central Arctic or a thickness change that increases with the initial thickness. A general theory is developed to describe the thinning of sea ice subjected to climate perturbations, and it is found that the leading component of the thickness depende... Abstract Submarine measurements of sea ice draft show that the ice has thinned in some parts of the Arctic Ocean at a remarkably high rate over the past few decades. The spatial pattern indicates that the thinning was a strong function of ice thickness, with the greatest thinning occurring where the ice was initially thickest. A similar relationship between sea ice thinning and the initial thickness is reproduced individually by three global climate models in response to increased levels of carbon dioxide in the models' atmosphere. All three models have weak trends in their surface winds and one model lacks ice dynamics altogether, implying that trends in the atmosphere or ice circulation are not necessary to produce a relatively high rate of thinning over the central Arctic or a thickness change that increases with the initial thickness. A general theory is developed to describe the thinning of sea ice subjected to climate perturbations, and it is found that the leading component of the thickness depende...