The Emergence of Differential Fertility in Urban Egypt

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Abstract
With her population increasing at the rate of almost 3% a year, Egypt is a classical example of a modernizing society that has already experienced a radical drop in mortality rates unmatched by any decrease in fertility. According to demographic theory, the beginning of an over-all decline in fertility will be signaled by the emergence, within the urban segment of society, of differential fertility rates by socio-economic class. The cross-sectional data available indicate that differential fertility has existed in Cairo for at least one generation, since the widest spread between the median number of children born to married women at various levels of education and status occurs among those married for 20, 30, and even more years. In 1947, the correlation coefficient (rx) between the fertility ratio of a census tract and the educational level of females in the tract was-. 82, similar to the correlation found in 1960 which was -.80. A similar impressive correlation was found in both years between fertility ratio and the index of age at marriage (-.81 and-.84 for 1947 and 1960 respectively). At present, the countrywide Egyptian birth rate has shown no signs of a decrease. If the present differentials by education and occupation are sustained in the coming generation, a gradual decline in fertility, as education becomes more widespread, can be expected. This would be in conformity to the norms already established within the better-educated and upper-occupational urban classes.

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