The north sea storm surge of 31 January and 1 February 1953

Abstract
Using observed hourly heights of tide at thirty-one stations in the North Sea and two in the English Channel, the storm surge of 31 January and 1 February 1953 has been investigated in the light of the meteorological conditions prevailing. The major cause of the disturbance is shown to be the strong northerly winds in and to the north of the North Sea, modified at each station by local wind and barometric effects. An increase of 2 ft. in the mean level of the North Sea during the disturbance has been deduced, and the response of the sea as a whole to the disturbing winds has been examined. Geostrophic effects have been remarked in both the growth and decay of the disturbance. Estimates have been made of the air/sea frictional coefficient on two separate occasions during the period considered, assuming the tractive force of the wind to vary as the square of its velocity. These estimates are in agreement with accepted values. The partial transmission of this large surge through the Straits of Dover has been shown as an im portant factor, influencing the levels immediately to the north of the Straits. Prediction of the surge at Southend by a previously established formula has given only fair results, but the errors have been explained in terms of the facts previously presented and the approximations upon which the formula is based. Suggestions for future research into the improvement of surge prediction formulae have been made.
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