Annual and Multi-Year Variability in Ozone Expected Exceedances

Abstract
Ozone data from 184 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) for the time period 1979-1989 were analyzed to: (1) put the large number of O3 exceedances observed in 1988 into perspective, and (2) determine if increasing the averaging time used to calculate the O3 NAAdS violation rate would significantly decrease the number of MSAs that experienced a change in their annual attainment status. The analyses indicate that 1988 had more exceedances in more MSAs than any other year, but 1979-1981 had more O3 NAAQS violations. The analyses also indicate that perceived attainment status flip-flops are significantly reduced by increasing the averaging period from the current three-year period to a longer time period.

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