Projecting Individualized Probabilities of Developing Bladder Cancer in White Individuals

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Abstract
Purpose There has been no risk assessment model for bladder cancer (BC). We developed the first model incorporating mutagen sensitivity and epidemiologic factors to predict BC risk. Patients and Methods We used epidemiologic and genetic data from a large case-control study to build the models and constructed receiver operating characteristic curves. The area under the curve (AUC) was used to evaluate model discriminatory ability. We also projected absolute risk of developing BC by taking into account competing causes of death. Results The study included 678 white BC patients and 678 controls. Significant risk factors in the epidemiologic model included pack-years smoked and exposures to diesel, aromatic amines, dry cleaning fluids, radioactive materials, and arsenic. This model yielded good discriminatory ability (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI, 0.67 to 0.73). When mutagen sensitivity data were incorporated, the AUC increased to 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72 to 0.82). The models showed excellent concordance in the internal vali...