Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

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Abstract
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976–2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.
Funding Information
  • University of Oxford (Sir Richard Southwood Graduate Scholarship)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1053338)
  • Medical Research Council (K00669X)
  • Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Studentship)
  • German Academic Exchange Service (Graduate Scholarship)
  • U.S. National Library of Medicine (R01LM010812)
  • 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (EU FP7) (602525)
  • Canadian Institutes of Health Research
  • Wellcome Trust (095066)
  • RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate
  • Fogarty International Center
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106023)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1068048)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1093011)
  • National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U19AI089674)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106427)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1032350)
  • University of Oxford (Sir Richard Southwood Graduate Scholarship)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1053338)
  • Medical Research Council (K00669X)
  • Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (Studentship)
  • German Academic Exchange Service (Graduate Scholarship)
  • U.S. National Library of Medicine (R01LM010812)
  • 7th Framework Programme for Research and Technological Development (EU FP7) (602525)
  • Canadian Institutes of Health Research
  • Wellcome Trust (095066)
  • RAPIDD program of the Science & Technology Directorate
  • Fogarty International Center
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106023)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1068048)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1093011)
  • National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (U19AI089674)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1106427)
  • Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1032350)