ITALY'S REFERENDUM ON DIVORCE: SURVEY AND ECOLOGICAL EVIDENCE ANALYZED*

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Abstract
This article is a much‐abridged version of a study appearing in the Italian political science journal after the referendum of May 12, 1974. Data from twelve nationwide sample surveys and results of the 1972 national election are put to use in the analysis. Changes in opinions pro and anti‐divorce are mapped through the seven years preceding the vote. Male sex, bigger commune size, higher education, social class, income, and political involvement are found to be associated with pro‐divorce feelings; age, religiosity, and church attendance with anti‐divorce feelings. In step‐wise regressions, the influence of these variables appears to vary greatly from one area to another, while the influence of party preference is uniformly high. This provides the ground for running ecological regressions of the percentage votes against divorce on the joint percentage polled in 1972 by the two parties who campaigned against divorce (the Christian Democrats and the neo‐fascist MSI). At various levels of aggregation, the correlation coefficients are uniformly high, ranging from .81 to .94. Through detailed analysis of scattergrams, nine ecological areas are singled out and mapped; historical and sociological reasons for the existence of such areas, as well as deviant provinces, are given.

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