Twenty-Six Years of Change in a Pinus strobus, Acer saccharum Forest, Lake Itasca, Minnesota

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Abstract
A 0.48 ha permanent plot located in a mesic P. strobus dominated forest was remapped after 26 yr. Pinus remained the dominant species in basal area and had the lowest mortality rate of any major tree species. The understory was dominated by A. saccharum, Tilia americana and Ostrya virginiana, all of which had high mortality rates. Establishment of numerous new stems resulted in a net gain in Ostrya and Tilia density whereas Acer declined substantially. Populations of the shade intolerant Populus tremuloides, P. grandidentata and Betula papyrifera, which appear to have become established following mild surface fires in the late 1800s, all had high mortality. The short-term prognosis is a stable Pinus strobus canopy, loss of Populus and Betula, and a steady enrichment of the understory with Ostrya and Tilia. Acer should remain important but continue to decline in relative density. The long-term outlook is uncertain owing to the increasing probability of catastrophic breakup of the pine canopy.

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