Factors Influencing Wishful Thinking and Predictions of Election Outcomes

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Abstract
Wishful thinking (WT) is the link between preference (wish) and expectation (prediction). New Zealand voters (N = 605) were asked to predict election outcomes 8 to 10 weeks prior to the 1990 general election and to state their preference for one of the two major parties (Labour or National). Strong and consistent WT effects were found, with more favorable outcomes being predicted for the preferred party. Level of confidence in their prediction also contributed to anticipated election outcomes. A minority of respondents who displayed accurate information about the outcome of the previous election showed no WT effect in their predictions. An instruction to be objective, designed to increase rationality, was ineffective in reducing WT. Independent of preference and WT, predictions of nationwide election outcomes also varied as a function of electorate of residence. Mechanisms contributing to WT, adaptive and maladaptive aspects of WT, and the human capacity for rational control are discussed.

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