On the Determinants of the Success of Economic Sanctions: An Empirical Analysis

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Abstract
Theories predicting the success of economic sanctions are tested on the universe of sanction episodes from 1914 to 1989. The probability of success depends upon the cost to the target nation, the extent of trade linkages between target and sender, the stability of the target, the amount of time sanctions are in force, and whether financial sanctions are utilized. Data are analyzed using logistic regression. The factors affecting success depend upon the goals of the sending nations. When that goal is simply destabilization, the principal determinant of success is the initial stability of the target. For other goals, the use of financial sanctions is most effective. We also find evidence of a modest downward trend over time in the relative effectiveness of sanctions in the latter category.

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