The structure of a large-scale small-area multiregional model of California: Modelling an integrated system of urban, suburban and rural growth

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Abstract
Ballard K. P. (1983) The structure of a large-scale small-area multiregional model of California: modelling an integrated system of urban, suburban and rural growth, Reg. Studies 17, 327–338. Spatial theories normally agree that, conceptually, a regional system is a hierarchical composite of different types of areas. To date, however, most modelling efforts have ignored this issue. The objective of this paper is to present and discuss a new type of multiregional economic-demographic analysis that integrates the small area modelling of a larger diversified region. This is done in a dynamic (time-sensitive) framework. In the first section, small area location and growth theory is discussed in the context of existing frameworks of interregional analysis. Next, the theory and methodology of a new model called CAMS is examined. CAMS is a multi-regional model for the fifty-eight counties in California. In two sections we discuss first the general model characteristics and then the specifications for estimating industrial and demographic sectors within each of the areas. In the concluding sections, performance characteristics and a model forecast are examined in order to highlight the uniqueness of the CAMS model characteristics and establish the uses for the new type of model.

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