Treatment of Parameter Uncertainty and Variability for a Single Seismic Hazard Map

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Abstract
The inputs to probabilistic seismic hazard studies (seismic source zones, earthquake rates, attenuation functions, etc.) are uncertain, being based on subjective judgments and interpretations of limited data. In the face of this uncertainty, we consider (a) how one might “reasonably” determine the ground-motion levels to show on a single probabilistic seismic hazard map, and (b) the extent to which uncertainty in the calculated levels can be meaningfully represented on such a map. If the “best guess” estimates of the earthquake rate, the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and the maximum magnitude for a single source zone are regarded as uncorrelated and the uncertainty in each parameter can be regarded as symmetric about the estimated value, then the probabilistic ground-motion levels calculated using these best estimates represent both most likely values and also approximate mean values.

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