Change in Material Capabilities and the Onset of War: A Dyadic Approach

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Abstract
The hypothesis tested is that the speed of the change in the ratio of material capability of two proximate national actors predicts to the onset of an event, for example, war or peace. It is further posited that a faster rate of change is perceived by decision-makers as threatening, and, thus, they prepare for and initiate war. Utilizing COW data to establish system share capability and thereby determine velocity of dyadic ratio change prior to the event (war or no war), the hypothesis was tested controlling for contiguity and century. The findings give moderate to strong support to the theory. In general, the trend was in the right direction. In addition, low velocity of change strongly approaches a sufficient condition for peace, and high velocity of change moderately approaches a necessary condition for war.

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