Predicting solar cycle 24 with a solar dynamo model

Preprint

18 January 2007

preprint
Published by arXiv in arXiv

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.astro-ph/0701527

Abstract

Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar magnetic field into our solar dynamo model. Our results fit the observed sunspot numbers of cycles 21-23 extremely well and predict that cycle~24 will be about 35% weaker than cycle~23.

Keywords

SOLAR DYNAMO MODEL
PREDICTING SOLAR
MAGNETIC FIELD
SOLAR CYCLE

All Related Versions

Version 1, 2007-01-18, ArXiv
Published version: Physical Review Letters, 98 (13), 131103.

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