Models for prediction analysis

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Abstract
This paper discusses models for prediction analysis. It describes prediction analysis as devised by Hildebrand, Laing, and Rosenthal (1977) and criticisms of the method. Paradoxical results are illustrated. The paradoxical characteristics are explained from differences between models underlying statistical testing and hypothesis formulation. The paper proposes nonstandard log‐linear modeling as an alternative to Hildebrand et al.’s (1977) approach. This new approach parameterizes deviations from independence between predictors and criteria. Implications are laid out. The discussion focuses on the type of hypotheses analyzed.

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