Abstract
The forecast aging of the United States — the doubling of the share of the population over 65 years of age in the next 75 years1 — will have profound effects on the medical system. Pessimists worry that the increase in the elderly population will bankrupt the Medicare program; they urge the restructuring of Medicare coverage in order to accommodate the needs of this population.2 Optimists note that medical spending is related to disability more than to longevity. If, as recent data indicate, the aging population not only is living longer but is also healthier,3 then spending for medical care . . .