Validation of the Health ABC Heart Failure Model for Incident Heart Failure Risk Prediction

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
Background—The recently developed and internally validated Health ABC HF model uses 9 routinely available clinical variables to determine incident heart failure risk. In this study, we sought to externally validate the Health ABC HF model. Methods and Results—Observed 5-year incidence of heart failure, defined as first hospitalization for new-onset heart failure, was compared with 5-year risk estimates derived from the Health ABC HF model among participants without heart failure at baseline in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During follow-up, 400 of 5335 (7.5%) participants developed heart failure over 5 years versus 364 (6.8%) predicted by the Health ABC HF model (predicted-to-observed ratio, 0.90). Observed versus predicted 5-year heart failure probabilities were 3.2% versus 2.8%, 9.0% versus 7.0%, 15.9% versus 13.7%, and 24.6% versus 30.8% for the 20% 5-year risk categories, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 was 14.72 (degrees of freedom, 10; P=0.14), and the C inde...