The Prediction of Good and Poor Reading Before Kindergarten Entry: A 4-Year Follow-Up

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Abstract
All preschool children of the same age-group in a small town (N = 180) were tested 6 months before kindergarten entry (M age = 4 years — 9 months) with the Holbrook Screening Battery (HSB). The HSB correctly identified 92% of children who scored as both good and poor readers 4 years later on the Stanford Achievement Test (Total Reading score.) A shorter battery (5 HSB subtests) was found to predict reading as well as did the total HSB battery of 15 subtests. In factor analysis, the 5 variables most effective in predicting reading loaded on a verbal or a visual-verbal factor (WPPSI Information, Sentences, Letters, Counting and Draw-a-person; R = .74). Conclusions were that the prediction of later good and poor reading is no less accurate at age 4 than it is at 5 or 6 years, and that language and word-finding tasks are effective predictors. The benefits of predictive testing before kindergarten entry, and its role in reducing reading disability, are discussed.