Sustained availability: A management program for nonrenewable resources

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Abstract
The continued extraction from the earth of nonrenewable mineral and fuel resources is a cause for concern, particularly where the rates of extraction are growing. If the rate of extraction declines a fixed fraction per unit time, the rate of extraction will approach zero, but the integrated total of the extracted resource between t=0 and t=∞ will remain finite. If we choose a rate of decline of the rate of extraction of the resource such that the integrated total of all future extraction equals the present size of the remaining resource then we have a program which will allow the resource to be available in declining amounts for use forever. This program is called Sustained Availability (SA) and it is somewhat analogous to the program of ‘‘sustained yield’’ in the management of renewable resources such as agriculture. The mathematics of this program, the opportunities it presents, and its consequences are examined in detail.

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