Stochastic Dynamics of Avian Foraging Flocks

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Abstract
Energetic constraints on time budgeting allow predictions of variation in the stochastic dynamics of avian foraging group sizes and variation in flock size frequencies. Estimates of arrival/departure rates in overwintering junco flocks support most of the hypotheses concerning variation in the dynamics. Group size dependent arrival rates decrease and departure rates increase as time allocated to aggression increases. Aggression rates become greater when increases in either temperature or food density reduce required foraging time. Observed group size frequencies also change as predicted by a linear birth-death chain, but predictions of distribution parameters based on the dynamics become increasingly inaccurate as the model''s assumptions are violated by system biology.

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