The Importance of the First round in the Multiplier Process: The Impact of Civil Service Dispersal

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Abstract
In this paper an extended Keynesian regional multiplier model is developed and used to estimate the local impact of two proposed (but subsequently cancelled) moves in the UK programme of Government office dispersal. These moves were to have been the relocation of the Property Services Agency to Cleveland and part of the Ministry of Defence to the county of South Glamorgan. The multiplier formulation explicitly takes into account an important feature of Government office dispersal; that is, that a large proportion of the employees move with the job. The importance of the first round in the multiplier process is stressed, and quantitative estimates of the effects of varying the nature of the initial injection are given.

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