Prediction of relapse in men alcoholics.

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Abstract
Relapse records of 90 hospitalized men alcoholics (mean age 45) in New Zealand were examined over a 6-mo. period after their discharge from a 12-wk inpatient treatment program. Their degree of cognitive impairment was measured on the Patterned Cognitive Impairment Test (PCIT) which was administered between the 4th and 6th wk of hospitalization. Of the 90 men, 30 had PCIT scores between -6.71 and -2.55, 30 between -2.50 and -1.00 and 30 between -0.96 and +1.72. Lower scores reflect greater cognitive impairment. Individual differences in relapse rate were examined by stepwise linear regression and corroborated by a more elementary contingency analysis. Relapse was predictable from a set of psychological and social variables: degree of cognitive dysfunction (PCIT score) had a dominant role (explained 20% of variance), followed by attitudes toward participation in Alcoholics Anonymous [AA] (23%, when AA participation was included in the regression), participation in religious activities (15%), social class (8%) and to a much lesser extent (about 3% and less) by the patients'' social stability.

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