A long‐term prospective study of optic neuritis: Evaluation of risk factors

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Abstract
Eighty‐six patients with monosymptomatic optic neuritis of unknown cause were followed prospectively for a median period of 12.9 years. At onset, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis was present in 46 patients (53%) but oligoclonal immunoglobulin in only 40 (47%) of the patients. The human leukocyte antigen (HLA)‐DR2 was present in 45 (52%). Clinically definite multiple sclerosis (MS) was established in 33 patients. Actuarial analysis showed that the cumulative probability of developing MS within 15 years was 45%. Three risk factors were identified: low age and abnormal CSF at onset, and early recurrence of optic neuritis. Female gender, onset in the winter season, and the presence of HLA‐DR2 antigen increased the risk for MS, but not significantly. Magnetic resonance imaging detected bilateral discrete white matter lesions, similar to those in MS, in 11 of 25 patients, 7 to 18 years after the isolated attack of optic neuritis. Nine were among the 13 with abnormal CSF and only 2 belonged to the group of 12 with normal CSF (p = 0.01). Normal CSF at the onset of optic neuritis conferred better prognosis but did not preclude the development of MS.