A Study of the Evolution of Solar Active Regions for Improving Solar Flare Forecasts

Abstract
Statistics on the frequency of transition between active region classes were calculated and used to derive the expected rate of flaring for the next 2-7 days. Five years of McIntosh active region classifications were analyzed using the newly-developed software called TELSAR (Tracking and EvoLution of Solar Active Regions). The most frequent transitions between these 63 different classes usually involve a single-step change in one of the three classification parameters. The evolution of the classes and the average, single- day flare rate were used to predict flare rates for each class over the next several days. For flares of X-ray class M, these rates can differ from persistence predictions by more than 0.5 flares per day, although a more typical difference is 0.1 flares per day. The rarity of some classes suggests that merging these classes with others may improve flare statistics and thereby improve flare forecasts. (sdw)

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