NET MIGRATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE*

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Abstract
An empirical test of the effects of exogenous shocks upon a region's population size is conducted in the framework of an equilibrium locational model. The model emphasizes the separation of endogenous from exogenous factors, a point omitted in most empirical studies of aggregate migration. Exogenous changes are manifested in the local relative cost of living and the local relative unemployment rate. Hypotheses are tested using a national sample of youth, in addition to census, data. Surprisingly, a simple measure of the size of shock to a regional economy has the greatest explanatory power compared to more sophisticated measures based on prior business cycles.

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