Determining Risk of Traumatic Aortic Injury

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Abstract
OBJECTIVE. Our objective was to develop and validate a clinical prediction rule that determines patient probability of traumatic aortic injury to guide selection of optimal screening imaging strategy.MATERIALS AND METHODS. A 2-year, single-institution retrospective case-control study was conducted of 31 cases of traumatic aortic injury and 171 random major trauma control subjects. The presence of potential injury predictors was determined from chart review. Logistic regression was used to determine injury predictors, and clinically similar predictors were combined into composite predictors. The composite predictors were used to develop a seven-point injury index clinical prediction rule using multivariate logistic regression. Injury probabilities were determined through Bayes' theorem. Bootstrap validation was performed.RESULTS. Predictors of aortic injury included head injury (odds ratio, 18.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.3-46), pelvic fracture (odds ratio, 27.3; 95% CI, 8.8-85), pneumothorax (odds r...