Development of a Model for Simulium damnosum S.L. Recolonization Dynamics at a Breeding Site in the Onchocerciasis Control Programme Area When Control is Interrupted

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Abstract
Problems associated with S. damnosum s.l. population dynamics and control are discussed in relation to the Onchocerciasis Control Program in the Volta River Basin. Nulliparous and parous biting rates were observed during the recolonization of Grechan rapids when larvicide applications were interrupted for 3 mo. during the dry season. A new method of data analysis is proposed and used to estimate population parameters. A new mathematical model of recolonization is proposed which mimics the key features of the process. The model is used to simulate the effect of larvicide and could form the basis for an investigation of alternative management strategies.