Modeling the long-term effects of disturbances on forest succession, Olympic Peninsula, Washington

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Abstract
A model of forest development has been adapted for the Pacific Northwest. The regeneration, growth, and death of individual trees are tracked for simulated 0.2 ha plots and tree attributes are aggregated to provide stand measures. The model includes the influence of temperature, soil moisture, light tolerance, and competition on tree growth. Long-term simulations for Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii] dominated forests on the western Olympic Peninsula show that the stand is eventually dominated by western hemlock [Tsuga heterophylla] with silver fir [Abies amabilis] being codominant. Even after 1200 years of subsequent stand development, silver fir fails to replace western hemlock indicating that this is a self-replicating and stable community. Fire, windthrows, insect disturbance, and clear-cut logging followed by replanting are incorporated into the model as single-event disturbances to a 500-year-old forest. For those cases where large Douglas-fir survive the disturbance, stand biomass and leaf area patterns are not significantly impacted until the death of the last large Douglas-fir. The projections were all carried out to the time when the forest is dominated by western hemlock and silver fir. At that time, the differential effect of the earlier disturbance is not apparent from the forest composition, biomass, or leaf area patterns except for the insect disturbances. Following the removal of all Douglas-fir by an insect, leaf area fluctuates regularly with a period of 600 years.